Opinion

In the upcoming meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) between July 22nd and 23rd 2019, we expect rates to be kept at current levels but the tone of members to support monetary easing. Since the last meeting in May 2019, the global and domestic economic environments have become more supportive of the shift towards looser monetary policy. On the domestic scene, the CBN has issued new guidelines to compel commercial banks to expand credit. The most drastic was the minimum floor of 60.0% established for loan to deposit ratio.

Ahead of the release of May 2019 inflation data next week, we present our expectations. We project a slight moderation in headline inflation to 11.3% Y-o-Y in May from 11.4% due mainly to a high base effect. This is despite an expected uptick in M-o-M inflation to 1.0% in May from 0.94% in the previous month. Our forecast is mainly driven by sustained food price pressures which would drive M-o-M food inflation higher to 1.3% from 1.1% in the previous month. This would leave food inflation marginally lower but broadly unchanged at 13.7% Y-o-Y.

Helping women find jobs or raise their incomes in Nigeria can put them at heightened risk of violent abuse by boyfriends, husbands and the public, a World Bank study has found.

The study aimed to assess the risks of the Nigeria For Women project, a $100 million programme to improve women’s livelihoods by providing grants, skills training and business advice.

Few weeks ago, the National Assembly passed the 2019 appropriation bill of the Federal Government into law. This was concluded in record time, considering that May 6 was the earliest time the budget had been passed under the President Buhari administration prior to 2019. Budget deliberations were also less contentious than in the past three years when the executive and legislature had a fractious relationship.