Weekly Global Market Review and Outlook

Global equities within our coverage maintained their broadly bullish close in the week following news that triggered investor sentiments in the different markets. During the week, markets reacted to the release of the US inflation data that seems to have begun firming. Although the Fed decided to hold rates steady on depressed world growth outlook, the market believes that rising inflation rates and good job reports in the country may necessitate a hike in rates by March 2016. Against this backdrop and news round about a likely increase in monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank (ECB), most markets in the developed and European regions closed in the green.

In the developed region US NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed 0.9% and 0.7% higher while the UK FTSE fell 0.7%. Equally, the Russian RTS, Germany DAX and France CAC 40 in the European markets rose 0.3%, 0.1% and 3bps accordingly. On the other hand, within the BRICS region, the Brazil Bovespa and South Africa JSE fell 4.7% and 0.7% respectively.

Amongst equities within our coverage, the China Shanghai Comp advanced the most with 6.5% W-o-W against the noticeable recovery and stabilization in the economy and amid speculations that the monetary authority will boost growth in the economy. Likewise, the India BSE Sens added 0.5% while the Japan Nikkei shed 0.8% W-o-W. Within the African region however, the Egypt EGX 30 emerged the highest gainer W-o-W with 3.3% with the Ghana GSE following with 0.2% W-o-W while the Kenya NSE 20 and Nigerian All Share declined with 2.9% and 1.1% respectively.

Nigeria’s Equities Market: Last Trading Day Performance
Following the trickling in of some Q3:2015 results that began yesterday, the market ended the week stronger than it opened, closing 0.5% higher to 29,834.21points. Market capitalization equally improved N46.1bn to settle at N10.3tn. Today's sustained positive performance was against renewed buying interest in ZENITH (+3.9%), GUARANTY (+2.0%) and FORTE OIL (+3.7%). Market activities measured by volume and value however declined 9.0% and 35.3% to 157.3m units and N2.2bn respectively.   

Sector indices were broadly positive today. The Banking index performed the best, closing 1.5% higher on appreciations in ZENITH (+3.9%) and GUARANTY (+2.0%). FORTE OIL (+3.7%) equally pushed the Oil & Gas basket higher by 1.1%. The Insurance and Consumer Goods sectors also closed northwards with 0.4% and 0.1% - AIICO (+4.7%) and NIGERIAN BREWERIES (+0.2%) respectively. On the other hand, consequent on the 2.9% sell-off in CCNN the Industrial index fell 3bps.

After staying negative in the last 4 days, market breadth turned positive at 1.0x today (19 advancers vs. 20 decliners). The gainers' chart was topped by SKYE BANK (+9.7%), LEARN AFRICA (+5.0%) and AIICO (+4.7%) while TRANSCORP (-9.6%), E-TRANZACT (-5.0%) and CAVERTON (-5.0%) led the losers. We believe the recent performance on the bourse is closely linked to the release of Q3:2015 results, hence, we expect market to remain marginally positive in subsequent sessions.

Nigeria’s Equities Market: Weekly Performance Review
After shedding points on 2 trading days and gaining marginally on 3 days, performance of the equities market is adjudged weak this week. The NSE ASI maintained its southward W-o-W and YTD close at 1.1% and 13.9% respectively. Equally, market capitalisation fell N113.8bn W-o-W to settle at N10.3tn. Market activities measured by average volume and value of shared traded also waned 46.1% W-o-W to 149.9m units and 16.4% W-o-W to N2.0bn respectively. Similarly, CAP OIL emerged the highest traded stock by volume after 200.0m (21.1%) units of the stock were exchanged during the week while GUARANTY was the most traded by value as N1.9bn (18.6%) worth of the stock were traded.

Sector performance was mixed this week. The Oil & Gas index topped the sector gainers with 3.8% on sustained appreciation in FORTE OIL (+9.8%) and SEPLAT (+2.6%). Equally,  after recording gains on all trading days, the Insurance index also improved 2.8% consequent on appreciations in MANSARD (+10.7%) and CUSTODIAN (+4.5%). On the back of increases in ZENITH BANK (+7.4%) and FCMB (+4.8%), the Banking index also rose 0.7% W-o-W. Conversely, the Consumer Goods index led sector losers weakening 1.7% W-o-W on the back of sustained sell-offs in NIGERIAN BREWERIES (-3.3%) and FLOURMILLS (-5.9%). The Industrial sector also lost 1.4%W-o-W on declines in DANGOTE CEMENT (-3.6%)

Though better than the previous week, market breadth --ratio of advancers to decliners - remained in the negative region at 0.8x W-o-W as 29 stocks advanced against 38 declining stocks. Top gaining stocks were led by OKOMU OIL (+24.3%), NASCON (+10.9%) and MANSARD (+10.7%) while ACCESS (-9.2%), LEARN AFRICA (-8.7%) and UNITY BANK (-7.4%) topped the week's losers. We however attribute the recent gains in market to the release of some Q3:2015 results hence, we expect market to continue trading sideways on company performances.