Opinion

Nigeria and Sustaining Development Challenges

Ever wondered why news about the positive growth of the Nigerian economy doesn’t positively affect you personally? Ever wondered why the common man finds it difficult to grasp the fact that although Nigeria has the largest economy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Africa, it still doesn’t translate to improved quality of life for them?

Global Hunger Rises for First Time in Decade

Global hunger levels have risen for the first time in more than a decade, now affecting 11 percent of the world’s population, as conflict, climate change and economic woes bite, U.N. agencies said on Friday.

Last year, 815 million people were hungry - 38 million more than in 2015 - the five agencies said in the first global assessment since governments set an international target to eliminate hunger and malnutrition by 2030, as one of a set of so-called Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

MPC: Tightening Argument Overriding despite Strengthening Case for Easing

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to have its 5th meeting of the year on the 18th and 19th of September, 2017. As has been the case with all meetings held so far in 2017, we expect the committee members to maintain status quo on policy rates as they sit to deliberate on recent happenings in the global and domestic landscape next week. However, we expect emphasis to be placed on the need to consolidate gains in the FX market whilst urging for more fiscal-monetary policy coordination to sustain recent improvements in domestic macroeconomic fundamentals.

Economy Expands in Line with Forecast …Better Days Ahead?

During the week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Nigeria’s Q2:2017 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report which confirmed consensus view that macroeconomic fundamentals are improving and growth would turn positive after five consecutive quarters of contraction. The report showed GDP expanded by 0.55% Y-o-Y in Q2:2017 - much in line with our estimate of 0.6% - compared to a contraction of 0.9% Y-o-Y in Q1:2017 (revised downward from earlier estimate of –0.55%) and decline of 1.5% Y-o-Y in Q2:2016.

Q2 2017 Capital Importation Report: Foreign Inflows Up

During the week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published its quarterly capital importation report for Q2:2017. Expectedly, the data published reflected improved investor confidence in the Nigerian economy since the turn of the second quarter against the backdrop of improving macroeconomic condition and FX policy reforms implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in April 2017. This culminated in a rebound in capital inflows in the period to a level last seen in Q3:2016 when the CBN first announced a move to a flexible FX market structure.

A Call to Action: Refinancing Domestic Short-Term Debt with Cheaper Dollar Sources

In what could be considered a strategy to address Nigeria’s rising debt servicing cost brought about by high domestic interest rate environment and sizeable increase in fiscal deficit over the years, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) on Wednesday this week approved a restructuring plan for public debt by way of refinancing maturing Treasury Bills obligations with cheaper and longer term external debt.

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